2021 Golden Globes Betting and Odds: Nomadland, Hamilton, Mank

The 78th annual Golden Globes, presented by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA), takes place this Sunday. Lin-Manuel Miranda’s “Hamilton” comes into the Golden Globes as a favorite to win best musical or comedy at -150 odds. It’s a two-horse race for best motion picture drama with “The Trial of the Chicago 7” the favorite at -110 odds and “Nomandland” close by at +100 odds. The late Chadwick Boseman with his outstanding performance in “Ma Rainey Black Bottom” has the inside track to win best actor at the Golden Globes at -900 odds.

2021 Golden Globes odds betting Nomadland Chadwick Boseman Frances McDormand
Chadwick Boseman, Sacha Baron Cohen, Daniel Kaluuya, and Frances McDormand earned nominations at the 2021 Golden Globes. (Image: Variety)

“The show must go on!” is the golden rule of the entertainment industry. The 2021 Golden Gloves will continue as schedule, albeit, in a tweaked format. Tina Fey will host from the Rainbow Room in New York City on the East Coast. Her co-host, Amy Poehler, will handle duties from the West Coast at the Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, California. Nominees and presenters will take part in the live broadcast from various locations around the world.

During the 2021 Golden Globes, the HFPA will honor Jane Fonda with the Cecil B. deMille Award will. Meanwhile, the legendary producer Norman Lear will be honored with the Carol Burnett Award.

Even though movie theaters were shuttered during the global pandemic, many of the nominated films were originally viewed on streaming services.

Sit back, relax, and enjoy our betting picks for the film and motion picture categories at the 2021 Golden Globes.

Best Drama: Nomadland, Mank, Chicago 7

At the Golden Globes, the best picture category is split between drama and musical or comedy. In the drama category, the 1960s anti-war protest movement comes to life in “The Trial of the Chicago 7”, which includes Sacha Baron Cohen as Abbie Hoffman, Eddie Redmayne as Tom Hayden, Jeremy Strong as Jerry Rubin, and Mark Rylance as attorney William Kunstler.

In “Nomadland”, Frances McDormand plays a widow named Fern that sheds her home and possessions to live off the grid by traveling throughout the American west while chasing seasonal employment that included an Amazon warehouse and the Badlands in North Dakota.

“Mank” is a bio pic about a well-lubricated screenwriter names Herman J. Mankiewicz, who struggles to develop and write a screenplay for Orson Wells that ends up becoming his masterpiece known as “Citizen Cane.” Yes, if you like movies about making movies, then Mank checks all the boxes.

Best Motion Picture Drama Odds
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 -110
  • Nomadland +100
  • Promising Young Woman +800
  • Mank +1200
  • The Father +2500

“Promising Young Woman” is a dark comedy about a young woman, played by Carey Mulligan, who tried to avenge the rape and subsequent suicide of a friend.

If you’re a primary caregiver to elderly family members, then “The Father” strikes deep. Anthony Hopkins plays an 80-year-old man who slowly slides into dementia and he’s taken care of by his daughter played by Olivia Colman.

It’s almost a coinflip between “Chicago 7” and “Nomadland” which have close odds to win best motion picture, so pick a side: hippies or nomads. We lean hippie, but backing nomads.

OG’s Pick: Nomadland +100

Best Comedy/Musical: Hamilton and the Return of Borat

Unless you just woke up from a coma, let me get you up to speed with “Hamilton”, which started out a musical by Lin-Manuel Miranda. It’s a hip-hop version of the life and times of Alexander Hamilton that became a massive success on Broadway. They filmed a performance of “Hamilton” and aired it on Disney+, where it became an instant classic for everyone who did not get a chance to watch it on Broadway.

“The Prom” is a Ryan Murphy (“Glee”) musical that’s based on the popular Broadway play about a girl from a small town in the Midwest who wanted to take another girl to the prom as her date. Hilarity ensues.

Sacha Baron Cohen reprises his role of Borat to expose the hypocritical and cringe-worthy moments of heavily-politicized America. “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”, a mockumentary, comes in as one of the favorites at +120 odds and it’s 100% pure comedy gold.

Best Motion Picture Musical or Comedy Odds
  • Hamilton -150
  • Borat Subsequent Moviefilm +120
  • The Prom +800
  • Palm Springs +1600
  • Music +3300

“Palm Springs” with SNL alum Adam Samberg became an overnight smash hit when it debuted on Hulu during the initial lockdowns when the pandemic hit last spring.

“Music” is a controversial musical created by song-writing legend Sia and featuring Kate Hudson.

It’s tough to avoid the front-running “Hamilton” because once you see it once, it’s impossible to get all the songs out of your head.

OG’s Pick: Hamilton -150

Screenwriting: Sorkin, Papa Fincher

If it weren’t for writers, a bunch of talentless suits in Hollywood would be churning out remakes of same four movies over and over again.

Aaron Sorkin is one of the greatest living writers, but he took another stab at directing. He’s up for both best screenplay and best directing with “The Trail of the Chicago 7.” In these politically-charged times, Sorkin is the heavy favorite to win best screenplay at -300 odds.

Jack Fincher, the father of David Fincher, is a journalist who penned the screenplay for “Mank”, based on screenwriting legend Herman J. Mankiewicz aka Mank.

Emerald Fennell is best known as the showrunner for “Killing Eve” series. She penned the screenplay for “Promising Young Woman.”

Best Screenplay Motion Picture Odds
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 -300
  • Promising Young Woman +200
  • Nomadland +1000
  • Mank +1200
  • The Father +1600

Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton co-wrote “The Father”, which was based on a French play by Zeller, about adults struggling to take care of their aging father.

Chloe Zhao, directed “Nomadland” and she adapted the screen play from “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder.

It’s boring to pick chalk all the time, which is why we like an upset here. Besides, during awards season, it would totally be a “Hollywood” vibe if the HFPA handed out an award for a film about making a film.

OG’s Pick: Mank +1200

Best Directing: Zhao, Finger, King, Sorkin, or Fennell

Three women were nominated for best directing and they’re up against two big dogs from Hollywood. With “Promising Young Woman”, Fennell earned a nomination in her directorial debut.

Zhao shot “Nomandland” on location in the American Southwest and she typically likes to cast real people and non-actors in her films.

King won Best Supporting Actress at the 2019 Golden Globes, but this was her first nod as a director. With “One Night in Miami”, King directed a historical film set in 1964 that dramatizes a fictionalized meeting including Muhammad Ali (just after he changed his name from Cassius Clay), Sam Cooke, Jim Brown, and Malcom X. The premise by King is that these important men spent an evening together in a hotel room in Miami to discuss the future of black America.

Best Director Motion Picture Odds
  • Chloe Zhao – Nomadland -500
  • David Fincher – Mank +500
  • Regina King – One Night in Miami +600
  • Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 +1200
  • Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman +2000

Although “Mank” is more of a comedy than a thriller, Fincher still leaves his fingerprints all over this film, which was shot in black and white. Fincher previously hit a home run at the Golden Globes with “The Social Network” in 2011.

In the last few years, Sorkin pivoted to directing. Just like Fennell and Zhao, Sorkin earned dual nominations at the Golden Globes for both screenwriting and directing.

Zhao is the favorite at -500 to win best director for “Nomadland”, with Fincher’s “Mank” as her closest competition at  the Golden Globes at +500 odds.

OG’s Picks: Nomadland -500

Best Actress: McDormand, Davis, and Return of Pfeiffer

Carey Mulligan from ” Promising Young Woman” comes into the Golden Globes as the favorite at -200 odds to win best actress at -200 odds. Any time Viola Davis appears in a film, she has a shot at earning a nod for a Golden Globe or an Academy Award. This year, Davis’ work with “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” is recognized as another stellar performance. Davis is the second-best favorite to win again at the Golden Globes at +250 odds behind Mulligan.

Best Performance Actress Drama Odds
  • Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman -200
  • Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom +225
  • Frances McDormand – Nomadland +450
  • Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday +1800
  • Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman +1800
Best Performance Actress Musical Comedy Odds
  • Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm -500
  • Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit +350
  • Anya Taylor-Joy – Emma +1000
  • Rosamund Pike – I Care a Lot +1400
  • Kate Hudson – Music +2000

In the musical/comedy category, Anya Taylor-Joy made waves in “Queen’s Gambit” as a chess prodigy, but she earned a nomination with her version of “Emma.” Bulgarian actress Maria Bakalova crushed it with her performance in the Borat sequel.

We like two upsets in this category with McDormand at +450 odds to win best actress in a drama and Michelle Pfeiffer in her comeback role with “French Exit” at +350 odds.

OG’s Picks: Frances McDormand +450 and Michelle Pfeiffer +350

Best Actor: Boseman, Hopkins, Borat or Hamilton?

It’s been a few months since Chadwick Boseman passed away from cancer, but it’s a bit eerie to still see some of his best work that had not come out yet. Boseman is the huge favorite at -900 odds to posthumously win best actor. Boseman gave a powerful performance in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”, which started out as a play about the jazz age set in the 1920s before it finally got the film treatment.

Don’t sleep on Riz Ahmed from “Sound of Metal”, who also gave a commanding performance as a punk-rock drummer adjusting to permanent hearing loss.

Best Performance Actor Drama Odds
  • Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom -900
  • Anthony Hopkins – The Father +600
  • Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal +1000
  • Gary Oldman – Mank +1200
  • Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian +2500
Best Performance Actor Musical Comedy Odds
  • Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm -225
  • Lin-Manuel Miranda – Hamilton +175
  • Andy Samberg – Palm Springs +1000
  • Dev Patel -The Personal History of David Copperfield +1200
  • James Corden – The Prom +2500

It looks like a close race for best actor in a musical/comedy between Sacha Baron Cohen or Lin-Manuel Miranda. Will the HFPA pick comedy over a musical? Borat over Alexander Hamilton?

Andy Samberg, Dev Patel, and James Corden round out the other nominees in the musical/comedy category.

OG’s Picks: Chadwick Boseman -900 and Lin-Manuel Miranda +175

Best Supporting Actress: Seyfried, Close, Foster

In “Mank”, Amanda Seyfried played an old-timey actress with a lot of pluck. Seyfried first made a name for herself in “Mean Girls” with Lindsay Lohan, but she might earn her first major win. She’s the favorite at -130 odds.

You caught a glimpse of Glenn Close as trailer park trash in “Hillbilly Elegy”, and Close is also one of the favorite at +175 odds to win best supporting actress.

Olivia Colman plays Queen Elizabeth in “The Crown”, which earned a slew of nominations in the television categories. On the film side, Colman earned a nod from her best supporting role in “The Father”.

Best Supporting Actress in Film Odds
  • Amanda Seyfried – Mank -130
  • Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy +175
  • Olivia Colman – The Father +300
  • Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian +1400
  • Helena Zengel – News of the World +1600

In “The Mauritanian”, Jodie Foster plays an attorney that represents one of the masterminds of the 9/11 terrorist attack.

German actress Helena Zengel is still only a kid, but she held her own against Tom Hanks in a western titled “News of the World”, which was directed by Paul Greengrass. The versatile Zengel spoke in German, English, and Kiowa, a Native American dialect. Zengel is a long shot at +1600 odds during her debut at the Golden Globes.

OG’s Pick: Amanda Seyfried -130

Best Supporting Actor: Kaluuya, Cohen, Odom, Murray and Leto

You might remember British actor Daniel Kaluuya from his excellent work in “Get Out” or “Black Panther”, but he also did a heck of a job playing Fred Hampton, one of the founders of the Black Panthers. Kaluuya is a slight favorite to win best supporting actor at -130 odds over Cohen.

Leslie Odom Jr. is most known for his role of Aaron Burr in the stage version of “Hamilton”, but he played crooner Sam Cooke in “One Night in Miami.”

Best Supporting Actor in Film Odds
  • Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Messiah -130
  • Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 +190
  • Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami +300
  • Bill Murray – On the Rocks +1200
  • Jared Leto – The Little Things +1400

During “On the Rocks”, Bill Murray stole the show as a father trying to help his daughter seek revenge of a cheating lover.

Jared Leto played a creepy alleged serial killer in “The Little Things” that also featured Denzel Washington and Rami Malek. It is currently available on HBOMax, but the film was panned by the critics.

If Cohen does not win a Golden Globe for leading actor in a musical/comedy with Borat, he has another shot in the supporting actor category. We’ll put it this way… we didn’t realize Cohen was in “The Trail of the Chicago 7” until the credits rolled and we saw his name playing Abbie Hoffman. For that alone, we think he could give Kaluuya a worthy challenge at +190 odds to win at the Golden Globes.

OG’s Pick: Daniel Kaluuya -130