Welcome to this 2021 Kentucky Derby. And welcome back into that which a standard Kentucky Derby resembles. Almost.
The audiences? Well, they are back — roughly 40,000. That is a quarter of that which generally turns Churchill Downs to a sporting bacchanalia. But there is people from the racks. We are going to accept it.
The horses? They are back, operating as 3-year-olds rather than 3 1/2-year-olds. And that is the important thing, even when you break a Derby. Together with King Fury’s defection Friday after conducting a fever, we’ve got 19 horses in the area.
As we go back to some”ordinary” Derby, a couple more components continue mentioning. Or replicating, as the case might be. In the points age, 1 near: Orb at 2013, has crossed the finish line . As great as called Agenda is and he is as great a nearer as you will notice here — that his genus isn’t exactly what wins Derbies.
Press and stem. That is what wins Derbies
Speed. Tactical rate, wins Derbies within this age.
Two different statistical concepts support . There is Santa Anita Park morning-line author and Xpressbet columnist Jon White’s Derby Attack System, especially class 3 of the eight-category DSS. That exemplified 52 of this past 55 Derby winners headed or were instant with a furlong to go in the past nine-furlong or even nine-plus-furlong prep race.
Then, there is the last Fractions Theory (FFT). Former Louisville Courier Journal gardening author Jennie Rees made the FFT. Currently a turf publicist, Rees revealed that 27 of this past 30 Might Derby winners conducted the last furlong of the final prep race 13 minutes or quicker, OR conducted the previous 3 furlongs at 38 minutes or quicker. Do you or another and you probably are a horse that has sufficient endurance to manage 1 1/4 milesper hour
Coffee is for closers. Modern Derbies are not
As we split down the area by class, remember that a deep closer has not won the Derby because Orb in 2013. At precisely the exact same time, remember it is usually a nearer who sneaks on the rear end of a trifecta or superfecta. These would be the horses, such as 46/1 Mr. Big News this past year, that find their own way to the rear end of toteboards with sufficient chances heft to mild up those boards.
OG News breaks our area for Saturday’s race categories, worst to first. The recorded chances are updated at Friday, 4:10 p.m. PT.
Why are you here?
Keepmeinmind (Article 4-61/1): This late-arriving-to-the-Derby closer includes a bonus — dreadful form. Before Keepmeinmind got to the Derby per week prior to the racehe started his 3-year-old campaign fearing how great he was a juvenile. After winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, finishing second in the Breeders’ Futurity and third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Keepmeinmind ended a Terrible sixth at the Rebel Stakes and also a worse fifth at the Blue Grass. He completed a joint 18 spans back in these 2 3-year-old races. Keepmeinmind? How about depriving you around our tickets.
Bourbonic (Article 20-37/1): “Bourbonic trailed ancient, innovative outside and completed well while no danger.” Concentrate on the past 3 words of these race notes out of his second-place complete at Parx and you also know Bourbonic is a jolt in your own tickets. Yes, even Bourbonic came from the second-place end in an allowance optional claiming race in Triple-A monitor Parx to acquire the Wood Memorial in 72Wood 1 ). He did so at a glacial 1:54. 49 for 1 1/8 milesper hour Just how do? The identical afternoon, Rock The World won the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby in 1:49. 17 and Vital Quality required the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass in 1:48. 50. Place the three together in this situation and Bourbonic remains running. “While no danger” neatly sums up Bourbonic’s possibilities .
Brooklyn Powerful (Article 3-63/1): Only a week ago, that Brand New York-bred gelding was prepping for the Preakness. Afterward, a Derby exodus of all defections place him along with his 10 points within the specialty. After viewing his fifth-place complete because slow Wood Memorial, it is tough to recreate this is exactly the identical horse that defeat Known Agenda by eight lengths before past autumn’s Remsen. This Brooklyn Powerful went 3-for-4 as a juvenile. This Brooklyn Strong seems overmatched here, in spite of standout riders Umberto Rispoli creating his Derby debut. The four-month layoff implies you will not confuse this Newest York-bred with a season’s New York-bred celebrity — Derby runner-up Tiz the Legislation.
Hidden Stash (Article 13-44/1): annually, a female trainer will state a Derby winner. Regrettably for Vicki Oliver, this isn’t that season. This nearer earned Derby points in each of three of the races — without even winning or running especially fast in almost any of them. He finished fourth at the Grass — 10 spans behind Vital Quality — after completing a game next to Helium at a helpless Tampa Bay Derby area. Hidden Stash’s career-best 83 Beyer is the prettiest at the area and also the most striking thing you may say about this Constitution colt is that he overcome Known Agenda by three lengths from the Sam F. Davis. It will not happen again.
Much like the King (Post 2-69/1): Here is your Derby favourite — when they conducted on the Kentucky Derby on vinyl rather than dirt. They do not and enjoy the King will not be confused for a popular here. He is here because he won the 100-stage Jeff Ruby Steaks on Turfway Park’s artificial Tapeta surface in late March. This came later he won the allowance optional claiming race and then finished second at the John Battaglia Memorial on Turfway’s artificial track. But such as the King seemingly does not like dirt, because he dropped his 2 dirt begins 19 3/4 lengths. The kid of 2013 Derby pace-setter along with Belmont winner Palace Malice gets the space pedigree. He’s got juvenile trainer-deluxe Wesley Ward, astonishingly which makes his Derby debut. But that is not sufficient to place a crown Like the King.
Helium (Article 12-57/1): three horses encounter this Derby unbeaten. The initial 2: Vital Quality and Rock Your World, roll your tongue off. Here is the one that you probably did not get. Yesthis grandson of all 1995 Derby and Belmont winner Thunder Gulch comes to the fray 3-for-3. Maybe you forgot regarding Helium since he has not run in eight months, or because springing the Tampa Bay Derby mad at 15. 40/1 ). Or maybe you forgot about him since his shirt 84 Beyer is 16 points supporting Rock Your World’s and 13 behind Vital Quality’s. Maybe you understood Helium did get pushed out wide at the Tampa Bay Derby. And this hardy colt can manage the Derby space. However, Helium’s lighter-than-air rate figures indicate awaiting the Belmont and working then.
Sainthood (Article 5-47/1): Say hello to the newest 3-year-old from the Derby, a May foal who travelled unraced as a 2-year-old. Maybe that explains why he is among the most stubborn horses within the area. Maybe that explains why he refused to distribute to visitors through the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks and battled at the three-quarter pole into next — dropping by just a length. And maybe that explains his maiden-breaker in Fair Grounds, once he dropped the guide, then recovered it to predominate by a nose. Make no mistake, Sainthood, his small speed amounts and unproven course will not be canonized together with roses. However, if so Besos is not your upstart Jesus’ Team or even Mr. Big News of 2021, why not ?
Fine stories, fine connections, maybe not Pleasant opportunities
Dynamic 1 (Article 11-51/1): Among trainer Todd Pletcher’s Derby foursome, this stalker revealed flexibility using a final kick which failed to eliminate 72/1 stablemate Bourbonic at the Wood Memorial. However where Bourbonic gets ignored for winning the most affluent Wood Memorial because the race turned into 1 1/8 kilometers in 1952, Dynamic One has props for completing second at 15Measure 1 ). That is because the son of 2012 Belmont winner Union Rags demonstrated he is not a fanatic by winning at a March nine-furlong maiden race at Aqueduct. He finished second to former top Derby prospect Greatest Honour by just 1 1/2 spans at a December maiden special weight in Gulfstream. Therefore that the shape and course is not there. The small rate, but does not make Dynamic One a lively danger for anything over your trifectas here.
Soup and Sandwich (Post 19-35/1): Acknowledge it. The title of the lightly raced Into Mischief progeny not just makes you hungry, but it leaves you hungry to have a bet down . You will have a lot of business. Produced by Charlotte Weber, the granddaughter of Campbell’s Soup creator John Dorrance, Soup and Sandwich took a bite of each race he has entered this season, moving 2-1-0 in his three starts. Last , this pace-presser ended a gutsy minute at 12/1 to 2 famous Agenda from the Florida Derby. This struck his Derby ticket. What is going to fool bettors at the gut is Soup and Sandwich’s external article, requiring him to split hard indoors for place contrary to another rate horses in the area. Horses like Rock The Planet, Medina Spirit, Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie that have more rate. What could he have left over the plate? This isn’t a recipe for fulfilling your own Derby wagering hunger pangs.
Super Stock (Post 18-50/1): Normally horseplayers choose the Arkansas Derby winner seriously. And maybe they’d have, had Bob Baffert’s Concert Tour performed what he was designed to win and do that top notch training. Instead, you need 12/1 Super Stock beating and beating it along with a Derby berth. If it includes the definition of”perfect excursion,” Super Stock’s Arkansas Derby success offers Exhibit A. He performed with his stalker/closer role flawlessly, blowing beyond Concert Tour along with Caddo River in deep stretch. There is zero chance this fantasy excursion repeats itself at a 19-horse Derby. His hybrid stalker/closer design runs right into improved horses of the two styles who stem better (see Vital Quality, Highly Motivated, Hot Rod Charlie and Medina Spirit) and shut better (see known Agenda,” O Besos). Super Stock’s co-owner is currently Erv Woolsey, ” the director for country star George Strait. Anticipate Super Stock and Attorney Ricardo Santana Jr. to”Give We All Got Tonight”. However, no”King of the Mountain” end expects.
Separate chances, exotic probabilities
O Besos (Article 6-52/1): The title of the hens of 2013 Derby winner Orb translates to”Or kisses.” And this profound nearer is becoming more affection and love than any very long shot or nearer at the field not termed known Agenda. Why? Well, purchase Besos includes a quicker career Beyer than known Agenda (96-94). This 96 Beyer arrived later O Besos clocked Beyers of all 60, 77, 83, also 88 in his past four starts. Nobody from the area has this sort of up rate trajectory. O Besos ended third with a mind on Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon at the Louisiana Derby and the latter had been saved by the cable for moment. Make no mistake, O Besos probably won’t triumph. However, having him in your exotic tickets along with seeing him fulfill out a trifecta at favourable chances will force you to fall in love .
Mandaloun (Article 7-44/1): Say”hello” into the Derby wild card, that travelled from the very front position of Derby contenders to just position in his final outing. And it is that sixth-place disappearance because the 6/5 Louisiana Derby favored that scrambled everybody’s eggs . Even coach Brad Cox stays puzzled about exactly what occurred. It is tough to draw the line by means of a clinker like this. Even to get a horse using a 98 career-best Beyer, three wins in five starts and also great training excursions since. Mandaloun was popular in all five begins. That finishes , however, that Into Mischief offspring might provide attractive down-ticket chances if you believe that the Louisiana Derby has been an outlier.
Midnight Bourbon (Article 10-18/1): As of Friday, Steve Asmussen possesses 9,306 livelihood coaching successes. Not one of these 9,306 are all Kentucky Derbies, that is a lasting narrative whenever Asmussen takes among his own brothers into Churchill Downs. It is likely that a grinder such as Asmussen attracts a grinder such as Midnight Bourbon for the season’s proceedings. Midnight Bourbon has not missed the plank in seven begins (2-2-3). He finished in the money from each of three Fair Grounds Derby preps, wiring that the Lecomte at January, finishing third at the Risen Star into Mandaloun, then next into Hot Rod Charlie at the Louisiana Derby. With two wheeled Derby winner”Big Money” Mike Smith from the coils, this constant pace-presser will likely be in the mix . He must be at the mix overdue. Regrettably for Asmussen, alas, Midnight Bourbon is probably a top notch beneath the prime contenders. Switch his Derby frustration along with Midnight Bourbon’s consistency to trifecta or superfecta gains for you.
Medina Spirit (Post 8-17/1): Then there was a single. With this $35,000 Protonico hens, you are considering Bob Baffert’s only hope for this listing seventh Derby success. Not what anybody anticipated when Life Is Great and Concert Tour were ruining areas from California to Arkansas. Through this, Medina Spirit set down his head and sailed away. He also came closer than anyone beating Life Is Great, completing a mind supporting his stablemate at January’s Sham Stakes. He refused to allow Roman Centurian along with Hot Rod Charlie by from the Robert B. Lewis. And he finished second at the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. Much like Midnight Bourbon and Sainthood, Medina Spirit never snacks in a hurry. Just like Midnight Bourbon, he will offer early rate. However, like these other , Medina Spirit is much better under than simply hiding your tickets. Distance problems prevent him from leaping to another echelon.
Worth, ability… and chances
Known Agenda (Post 1-18/1): If you are likely to become among those front-row Derby contenders and in case you are likely to become somewhat closer, you could as well be about the new, enhanced 20-stall railing. That is the consolation Todd Pletcher takes out of his Derby celebrity’s unfortunate place draw. Despite this, this son of Curlin reigns dangerous with any sort of daylight. Notably with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the controls. There is a motive Mike Battaglia created him the next favourite supporting Vital Quality and Rock Your World. After Pletcher additional blinkers, known Agenda revealed it along with his own 11-span dissection of a February Gulfstream Park allowance. Then came his operative two 3/4-span, traffic-navigating success at the Florida Derby. Known Agenda’s 112 Equibase is your very best body in the specialty. But as a result of this railroad track, his Derby destiny rests on Ortiz’s early numerical abilities in cascading visitors compared to known Agenda’s significant jogging abilities.
Highly Motivated (Article 17-18-1): As much disdain as the railroad article getshorses have gained Derbies from article 1. The exact same can not be stated from Motivated’s starting place, which can be 0-for-41. That has not stopped bettors by slipping on among the largest value horses within the area. They do this with dreams of aggressive rate amounts: some 97 Beyer and 102 Brisnet (tied for tops in the area ). Along with the picture of the Blue Grass Stakes throat reduction to Critical Quality. Post apart, you will need little motivation to place Highly Motivated in your own tickets — particularly anywhere near double-digit chances. The choices for coach Chad Brown and jockey Javier Castellano — both trying their first Derby success — is the way to flip that rate loose. Early, in a bid to get inside place ancient and slip the raceor (more likely) overdue at a stalker’s function.
It will not surprise you whatsoever
Hot Rod Charlie (Post 9-8/1): Trainer Doug O’Neill requires very little prodding to speak up some of his fees. But mention that child of 2013 Preakness winner Oxbow and O’Neill can not stop gushing. Nevertheless, the chatty O Neill’s been there earlier, unlike Hot Rod Charlie’s diverse ownership group. This class: California businessman Greg Helm along with his spouses, five former members of the Brown University soccer team and ProFlowers creator Bill Strauss, will be about the trip of their lives. All courtesy of a more flexible, lively colt who will operate on the direct off the speed or stalking. Sexy Rod Charlie took Crucial Quality into the mat at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, dropped that Lewis picture to Medina Spirit, then blitzed the Louisiana Derby area. Together with Flavien Prat in the reins, the second-fastest Beyer (99) and also triple-figure Brisnet along with Equibases, Hot Rod Charlie can give O’Neill his third Derby, Prat his next and his owners his original.
Critical Quality (Post 14-Much ): Trainer Brad Cox is at risk of winning America’s main race in his very first attempt. He is in danger of becoming the initial Louisville native to win the Run for the Roses. And he is at risk of coaching owner/breeder colossus Godolphin’s initial Derby winner. All because of the Champion 2-year-old turned rock-star 3-year-old. There’s not anything deserving race favourite Vital Quality has done wrong in five races. He has won sloppy tracks and quick tracks. He has won from close to front, midpack and out of off the pace. He has defeated five additional horses of varying chances within this area: Hot Rod Charlie, Highly Motivated, Super Stock, Keepmeinmind along with Hidden Stash. His flexible running fashion, rate figures (per month 97 Beyer, 102 Brisnet, 109 Equibase), course (four graded stakes wins, and two Grade 1s), pedigree (a Tapit kid ) match the profile of some contemporary Derby winner. You can not fail with him in your tickets. It is possible to fail with the deficiency of worth vis-à-vis our selection. Thank you for torpedoing his chances, Mattress Mack. Frequently, that is where you draw the line between contenders.
Rock Your World (Article 15-9/2): as we’re not to do, let us get Rock Your World’s flaws from the way. He readily could get hauled into a pace duel with Highly Motivated, Medina Spirit, Soup and Sandwich along with Midnight Bourbon. His inexperience (three races) might variable. He could bounce from the Santa Anita Derby romp to an off-the-board complete. Or a meteor may strike Churchill Downs. Now, let us select off those one by you. 1) Joel Rosario may take this Chocolate Ride progeny outside, but he is too wise to drive the gas too premature. He will probably sit off the speed and moan 2) Justify established three years back you’ll acquire a Derby as a lightly-raced 3-year-old. 3) Rock Your Earth may muster, yes. However he’s the pace and pedigree to manage 10 furlongs. 4) Meteors aren’t at Saturday’s Louisville prediction. This really is the quickest horse in the area. This really is a horse in shape. And this really is a horse which assesses more or less every single box a contemporary Derby winner needs assessed: Rate (a field-best 100 Beyer), prep race (Santa Anita Derby) and conducting fashion (presser/stalker). Hot Rod Charlie almost got Critical Quality from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Highly Motivated almost got him at the Blue Grass. Rock Your World receives him .